The outcome of the massive protests in Iran remains uncertain at the time of going to press (January 15, 2026). However, we already observe that these events differ significantly from previous waves of resistance against the radical Islamist regime. Broad segments of the population are involved in all provinces; demonstrations are even larger than before, and there are numerous strikes and shop closures. Many of those involved realise they have nothing left to lose and are betting everything on one card: the overthrow of the regime. A growing number of demonstrators are calling for Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Shah, who publicly advocates for democracy, civil rights, and the separation of state and religion.

As during the June War, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has gone into hiding. The ISHR report on the situation in Iran, dated July 1st, stated regarding his disappearance at that time: “His absence throughout the entire war and even after the ceasefire came into effect painted the picture of a cowardly and detached leader who pursues his ideological goals … at any cost, even if this means massive sacrifice and suffering for his own people.” Furthermore, the ISHR noted at that time “initial signs of internal tensions” within the Iranian power apparatus.

It would be high time for its collapse: The numbers of estimated dead and arrested are currently skyrocketing, first in the two-digit, then three-digit, four-digit and already five-digit figures: The extremely brutal actions of the Revolutionary Guards aim for a high death toll and terrible injuries to weaken the morale of the demonstrators.

The past six months have been characterised by a massive increase in repression coupled with high inflation and unemployment, which further eroded the middle class. The persistent fanaticism of the mullah dictatorship has intensified isolation. The reaction: even more fanaticism and even more persecution.

Sixteen years ago, Reza Pahlavi already had a clear vision of a future Iran: “I hope that we can establish a system as an alternative to this clerical rule , one that will be a secular democracy, and I emphasize the word ‘secular’ again—a clear separation of religion and government. Furthermore, if you have a constitution based on the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, this is a built-in, codified guarantee of legal protection for every citizen with regard to ethnicity, religion, political opinion, and sexual orientation. You must enshrine this in law, and you must have a vibrant civil society and other safeguards that defend these principles, so that you can be sure that no Iranian will be discriminated against, mistreated, or subjected to injustice because of their faith, their political beliefs, or anything else. That is what we are fighting for; that is what we want,” he said . Michaela Koller in an interview on March 27, 2010. © ISHR

Heavy prison sentences for photos sent to the world press

The ISHR received a message directly from Tehran on January 3rd; the follow-up inquiry has so far gone unanswered—the internet has been blocked. As early as June 23, 2025, the Iranian parliament ( Majles ) paved the way for the intensified prosecution of online activities with a new package of laws—appeals for help to the global public are thus criminalised. According to these laws, simply sending images or videos to foreign media can be punished with up to five years in prison. “Illegal” marches and assemblies during “wartime” carry prison sentences of five to ten years.

The ISHR is not only deeply concerned about the courageous Iranians on the streets, but especially about the numerous political prisoners already in the state’s custody, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi. The human rights activist was arrested on December 12, 2025, at the memorial service for the late human rights lawyer Khosrow Alikurdi, along with 15 other participants.

Torture and executions are commonplace in Iran. Since the beginning of 2025, the authorities there have executed over 1,100 people—more than in decades.

Theoretically, any Iranian citizen could recently fall under the authorities’ scrutiny because of their lifestyle: On the evening of October 10, 2025, police in the Iranian province of Golestan arrested several citizens for alleged “illegal mixed-sex outings and alcohol consumption.” The arrests took place during a recreational trip in the Kordkuy forests in northern Iran. This action by the authorities demonstrates a disconnect from reality, as does the establishment of “special departments” for “modesty and hijab” in the province of Isfahan; violations are classified as crimes. In November, the International Society for Human Rights (ISHR) reported on the concerns of human rights observers that this step could be used to expedite proceedings and increase penalties for the women involved; surveillance—including by the courts—could thus be expanded.

The ISHR has been following events in Iran with great attention for years. It monitors these events through public campaigns, provides information about individual cases through its well-known sponsorship program, and reports on emerging trends through its regular publications. The ISHR has mantained high standards in all these.