The Horn of Africa is on the verge of a volatile proxy conflict that could alter borders, undermine international law, and trigger severe human rights abuses throughout the region.   

 Central to this turmoil is Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who has boldly expressed his desire to invade neighboring nations—Somalia and Eritrea—to secure access to the Red Sea. His rationale, disturbingly similar to Vladimir Putin's justification for actions in Ukraine, dismisses international law as antiquated:

"The world will criticize us temporarily, and then they will move on." 

This startling announcement not only suggests a possible breakdown of the established rules-based international framework in the area, but it also indicates the emergence of a novel type of state-supported militarism—one financed and encouraged by external entities like the United Arab Emirates (UAE).   

Ethiopia's Naval Aspirations: A Landlocked Country Preparing for Conflict   

Supported by military assistance from the UAE, Ethiopia is reportedly working on establishing a naval force of 30,000 personnel—an astonishing development for a nation without access to the sea. This initiative is part of a broader strategy to exert influence over the Red Sea, presented under the pretext of regional security while exhibiting clear expansionist ambitions.  

Reports suggest that this new military capability would also be available to assist nations "willing to confront the Houthis" and to exert power in maritime routes. This militarization poses a threat not only to the sovereignty of Somalia and Eritrea, but it might also involve Egypt, Turkey, and Sudan, whose representative at the UN Security Council has strongly criticized the UAE for exacerbating the armed conflict in Sudan, leading to a precarious geopolitical divide marked by competing alliances and proxy interests.  

Since Eritrea gained independence in 1993, Ethiopia has been left without direct access to the sea. Although earlier administrations pursued peaceful economic agreements, Abiy Ahmed has adopted a stance of militarized nationalism and made public threats of invasion. His assertion that Ethiopia has a "rightful" claim to access the Red Sea—achieved through conquest rather than diplomacy—indicates a perilous new chapter of territorial aggression in Africa. The rhetoric of his regime has escalated into what many refer to as imperialism disguised as something else— upholding sovereign borders in violation of international legal frameworks and destabilising the region.

If this battle breaks out, it will probably spark a destructive proxy war between Ethiopia and its supporters in the UAE and Somalia, Eritrea, Egypt, Sudan, and Turkey. Ethnic cleansing, mass relocation, and systematic human rights abuses would ensue. The world needs to take action before another area is turned to ashes.

The Geostrategic Agenda of the UAE: Proxy Wars, Profit, and Power

The United Arab Emirates has become a key facilitator of this possible conflict. The Gulf state has been actively increasing its power in Africa in recent years by backing warlords, forming private military partnerships, and harvesting gold and rare minerals. The UAE's military investment in Ethiopia, according to critics, is more about control over trade routes, natural resources, and regional politics than it is about ensuring security. Its reported sponsorship of non-state armed groups and other destabilising activities in Somalia highlight a pattern of influence that is extremely worrisome.

According to one regional analyst who asked to remain anonymous for security reasons, "this is neo-imperialism with a modern twist—privatised, weaponised, and cloaked in development aid."

Abiy Ahmed's goals have been largely made possible by the UAE, which has invested enormous sums of money in Ethiopia's military establishment. Its objectives are diverse:  

• Military Dominance: The UAE has established bases in Assab, Eritrea, and Berbera, Somaliland, guaranteeing control over the Red Sea's shipping lanes.
• Resource Plunder: Emirati companies are charged with taking advantage of uncontrolled gold mining in Sudan and Ethiopia to embezzle money from weaker nations.
• Authoritarian Alliances: By propping up autocrats, the UAE thwarts democratic transitions and consolidates its influence through elite capture and militarization.
• Even more disturbing are allegations of Emirati funding of terrorist networks in Somalia, undermining institutions, fueling conflict, and weakening rule of law — all while posturing as a "partner" in regional security.  

Why Is Africa Being Undermined by the UAE?

The UAE's aspirations in Africa are an imperial endeavour of the twenty-first century. Among its goals are:

• Command of international shipping lanes and commerce hubs.
• Availability of rare minerals and unrestricted gold in Africa, particularly in areas of conflict.
• The use of "counterterrorism" to project military might in vulnerable areas.
• In collaboration with African strongmen, the suppression of independent media, democracy, and political pluralism.
• The UAE is instrumental in destabilising Africa for financial gain by supplying resources, promoting autocracy, and boosting war economies.

Human Rights Under Attack: An Imminent Crisis of Atrocities

This impending conflict has the potential to cause unparalleled levels of widespread human suffering:  

• The first casualties will be citizens. Famine, urban conflict, and mass displacement would result from the invasion of Somalia and Eritrea.
• Ethnic cleansing is on the horizon.
• The region's human rights defenders (HRDs), civil society, and freedom of expression are already under attack—with arbitrary arrests, disappearances, and killings on the rise—and women, minorities, and children will bear the brunt of the violence, including sexual violence and the recruitment of child soldiers.
• Abiy's previous war in Tigray was characterised by documented massacres, rape, starvation, and collective punishment.
• It's not a hypothetical situation. State violence already has a plan, and unless the international community steps in, it will only get worse. 

Regional Flashpoints: The Emergence of a Proxy War

A military conflict wouldn't be unique. It would:

• Attract Egypt, which sees GERD tensions and Red Sea militarisation as existential concerns.
• Encourage Sudan and Turkey, two countries interested in regional alliances and trading routes in the Red Sea.
• Set off counterattacks by Somalia and Eritrea, whose sovereignty is directly under jeopardy.
• Damage AU's reputation when another conflict erupts under its jurisdiction.
• This is the beginning of a multifront regional conflict with global repercussions, propelled by foreign actors and war economies.  

The Rules-Based Order's collapse

The world should take note of Abiy Ahmed's unsettling assertion that international law is no longer relevant. No nation is safe from revisionist regimes if human rights can be abused without consequence, if Africa's borders can be altered by force, and if autocrats can use petrodollars to buy international silence.
We are seeing a breakdown in global accountability, not just an African one. We must fight against the normalisation of ethnic cleansing, military aggression, and foreign meddling.

What Needs to Happen: An Appeal for International Intervention

The international community must take decisive action to avert disaster:

• Use concerted diplomacy and sanctions to denounce UAE militarism and Ethiopian expansionism. 
• Respect international law by restating the need to protect civilians and the integrity of African borders.
• Start looking into Emirati involvement in human rights abuses, arms trafficking, and illicit mining.
• Support HRDs and Civil Society: Give journalists and activists who are in danger resources, safety, and asylum.
• Encourage the UN and African Union to mediate conflicts and halt unlawful military buildups immediately.
• Taken-all-together, represent humanity rather than geopolitics.

The Horn of Africa is home to millions of people whose lives are currently at jeopardy due to the aspirations of a select few; it is more than just a battlefield. International law is being undermined, human rights are being attacked, and a new kind of imperialism supported by foreign powers is emerging.  

The world has to decide between accountability and action or complicity and silence. Another generation will be lost if we do nothing, not only to war but also to the idea that human dignity and justice are merely ideals.

Human Rights Analyst Danjire A.
Horn of Africa Watch