What Can Germany Do to Help Prevent a Chinese Attack on Taiwan?
Remarks by ISHR Board Member Michael Leh at the symposium marking the ninth anniversary of the death of Chinese Nobel Peace Prize laureate Liu Xiaobo in Leipzig.
Ladies and gentlemen, dear friends,
My name is Michael Leh. I am a journalist based in Berlin and a member of the Board of the International Society for Human Rights German Section, headquartered in Frankfurt am Main.
I first visited Taiwan in 2002, and since then, the fate of this fascinating island has never left my thoughts. I last visited in July 2022, when I accompanied Nicola Beer, then Vice-President of the European Parliament, shortly before the visit of Nancy Pelosi.
Together, we held talks with, among others, President Tsai Ing-wen, Foreign Minister Dr Joseph Wu — now Taiwan’s National Security Adviser — and then Prime Minister Su Tseng-chang.
A few months earlier, on 24 February 2022, Russia had launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This brutal invasion already occupied a central place in our discussions in Taipei.
With regard to the People’s Republic of China, Nicola Beer stated:
“There must never be a February 24 like that for Taiwan.”
Taiwanese armed forces conduct defensive firing exercises on the island’s east coast © Michael Leh
Greetings from Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Oleksandra Matviichuk
The consequences of Russia’s brutal attacks, including those targeting Ukraine’s civilian population, can be seen in the media every day.
Human rights activist Oleksandra Matviychuk attends the Trident Award ceremony in Toronto in 2025 © Mykola Swarnyk
I personally know the distinguished Ukrainian Nobel Peace Prize laureate Oleksandra Matviichuk. This courageous human rights lawyer, who lives in Kyiv, was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2022.
I first met her in Berlin in 2021, when she was accompanying two former Ukrainian political prisoners who had been detained and tortured by Russian forces in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk.
As the symposium marked the ninth anniversary of the death of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Liu Xiaobo, I contacted Oleksandra, informed her about the occasion and sent her the programme.
On her behalf, I conveyed warm greetings to everyone attending the commemoration of Liu Xiaobo. She wished the event every success and congratulated Zhang Zhan and Pastor Roland Kühne on receiving the Liu Xiaobo Human Rights Prize.
The Groundbreaking Charter 08
I also sent Oleksandra Matviichuk a copy of Liu Xiaobo’s groundbreaking Charter 08.
Oleksandra, whom I greatly admire, has long served as a de facto global ambassador for the human rights cause of her country. Her lectures, speeches, statements and interviews contribute enormously to public awareness and understanding of the situation in Ukraine, including in the territories occupied by Russia.
I am certain that she also has an open ear for human rights issues in other parts of the world.
In view of the continuing Russian missile and drone attacks, including attacks on Kyiv, I am always concerned for her safety and sincerely hope that she will never become a victim of such an attack.
Demonstration in front of the Chinese Embassy in Berlin in 2016, featuring images of Liu Xiaobo © Michael Leh
“If China Attacks”
The German sinologist and political scientist Andreas Fulda, who teaches at the University of Nottingham, published a German-language book this year entitled Wenn China angreift.
Fulda fears that Germany is making the same mistakes in its policy towards China that it made in its policy towards Russia before 2022.
In the book, he uses a novelistic style and considerable imaginative empathy to describe a possible Chinese attack on Taiwan.
Despite the fictional nature of the narrative, much of what he describes does not appear unrealistic. Born in 1977, Fulda has lived and worked in both China and Taiwan and is highly familiar with the political situation.
The fictional part of the book is followed by chapters presenting factual arguments—the “facts behind the fiction”, as Fulda describes them.
His aim is to educate the German public about the dangers facing Taiwan, as well as the political and economic consequences that an attack would have for Germany.
The book is intended as a warning and as a contribution to preventing war. It quickly became a bestseller in Germany.
Fulda has already succeeded in drawing new attention to Taiwan. This is especially important because Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, taking place in the heart of Europe, absorbs much of Germany’s attention and makes Taiwan appear particularly distant.
Cover of Andreas Fulda’s book Wenn China angreift —“If China Attacks”.
Germany Needs a New Taiwan Policy
Germany needs a new policy towards Taiwan—one that makes it clear to China, before it is too late, that the price of an attack on Taiwan would be extremely high.
Like Fulda, I believe that German arms deliveries to Taiwan should no longer be considered completely off-limits. The aim must be to strengthen Taiwan’s deterrence capabilities.
Arms deliveries to Ukraine were also considered off-limits before 2022—until it was too late.
German submarines, or submarine technology more generally, could be helpful to Taiwan. The same applies to various dual-use goods: technologies that can be used for both civilian and military purposes.
Taiwan’s diplomatic isolation in Germany should also be reduced.
When a German education minister visits Taiwan, she should be able to meet the Taiwanese president. When a Czech parliamentary speaker can address the Taiwanese parliament, a German parliamentary speaker should also be able to do so.
Germany cannot speak casually of a partnership based on shared values while simultaneously treating Taiwanese democrats like outcasts.
Germany’s economic dependence on China must also be reduced so that the country becomes less vulnerable to political and economic pressure.
Constant Kowtowing Will Not Appease an Aggressor
Constant kowtowing does not appease an aggressor. It encourages further aggression.
Winston Churchill described the dangers of appeasement with the words:
“An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last.”
Today, Russia and China are working increasingly closely together, including in the context of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
I do not want to be devoured by either of these “crocodiles”, and I hope that Taiwan will survive as a free and democratic nation.
The programme of the symposium in Leipzig © Michael Leh
This text is based on remarks delivered by ISHR German Section Board Member Michael Leh during the China Symposium held in Leipzig on 13 July 2026. At the event, the Liu Xiaobo Human Rights Prize was awarded to imprisoned Chinese journalist Zhang Zhan and German pastor Roland Kühne.
The text was also published in Chinese and English on the SinoEuroVoices website.
