According to Time magazine and Al Jazeera, 2024 is “the election year” and “democracy’s biggest test”, respectively. This year, more than 2 billion people will be casting their votes, making it a crucial year for democracy. At the time of writing, some of the most significant elections have already taken place in Asia, including Indonesia, Pakistan, and Taiwan. However, the results in countries such as Pakistan have already been contested, which is seen as an ominous sign for this year’s elections. The postponement of elections in Senegal has also raised concerns about the murky waters of this year’s electoral calendar. While many countries are scheduled to hold elections, all eyes are on the United States, where the upcoming presidential election is one of the most closely watched. With many uncertainties over the implications of a second Trump presidency, analysts are anxiously trying to predict what it would mean for the governance and political landscape of the world. Elsewhere, already, Candidates of Trump’s league are showing early signs of victory as is the case of Narendra Modi of India.

This Article highlights some of the elections that are being closely watched whose process and results will shape geopolitics.

Bangladesh

On the 7^th of January, Bangladeshis went to the polls to elect their national leaders. Although the opposition boycotted the election leading to a low voter turnout of only 40%, the incumbent, Sheikh Hasin’s ruling party of Awami League got 75% of the votes sealing the country as a de facto one-party state. Preceding the elections, government forces were reported to have arrested 10,000 members of the opposition and killed 16 following at a rally planned by the opposition BNP on the 28^th of October 2023 according to Human Rights Watch. The increase in violation and the brutal crackdown on dissent in Bangladesh has compromised the ability of the country to have fair and credible elections drawing condemnation and sanctions from partners. The United Kingdom Foreign Office has stated that the standards of a democratic election, namely; credible, open, and fair competition, respect for human rights, rule of law, and due process were not met.

Whereas the incumbent Prime Minister continues to rally support in the country and outside fronting herself as responsible for the fast-growing economy and stability the country has achieved during her tenure, this is at the expense of human rights and democratic values. Reports of gross human rights abuse directly implicate the Prime Minister and her close associates, some of whom have faced sanctions by the US government.

Pakistan

The Asian country, abundant in minerals, has been facing political turmoil since the former Prime Minister Imran Khan, who was also a former cricket star, was ousted in 2022. The Pakistani people are tirelessly seeking a viable solution to the political deadlock that has engulfed their country. The general elections held on 7^th February were expected to bring stability to the country, but the opposite happened. The jailed Khan’s party and banned PTI candidates received more votes than any other party—although PTI has alleged that the elections were rigged. With the possibility of a coalition government between the Party of two-time Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, the Muslim League, and the PPP, both backed by the hovering military, the future of the country’s political landscape hangs in the balance.

Although Pakistan’s democratic journey is still long, experts suggest that Khan’s popular support cannot be ignored, and any solution without his involvement would delegitimize the February elections, especially given the backing of the military.

The military’s presence and involvement in Pakistan’s political affairs is the biggest hurdle in the nation’s transition to a democratic, civilian-led state. The current political climate is fraught with tension, and as a result, people’s rights are being eroded through arbitrary arrests and even killings of political opponents.

Indonesia

On the 14^th of February while many people across the globe seized the day to show their loved ones how much they loved them; Indonesians used this day to exhibit one of the highest forms of love for one’s country—participating in the governance of the country through voting for their leaders.

The people in the World’s third largest democracy went to the polls to choose their president and other national leaders: 1 president from 20 presidential candidates and 20,000 representatives for national, provincial and district parliaments representatives from a pool of a quarter a million candidates according to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Out of the various candidates for the presidency, the closest rivalry is between three contenders; the Defence minister Prabowo Subianto, Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo who are both former governors.

Indonesia has undergone a stable transition to democracy since 1998 when the autocratic president Suharto was ousted from power. However, the recent election and apparent victory of Prabowo Subianto is evocative of the past, given his implication in gross human rights violations.

Despite his attempt to extend his stay to a third term, Joko Widodo, the current president, popularly known as Jokowi, was blocked by the powerful establishment. Nevertheless, his transition through an electoral process demonstrates the Indonesian people’s commitment to democracy.

Senegal

There is currently uncertainty surrounding the date of the highly anticipated 2024 general elections, due to the postponement of the elections by Macky Sall, the current president. Many have accused him of attempting to unconstitutionally extend his term. Despite previously being known as one of West Africa’s most stable democracies, Senegal’s constitutionalism and human rights are being undermined by the imprisonment of political opponents and violent crackdowns on protestors. This makes the country more vulnerable to tyranny.

Following the announcement of the postponement of the elections, the Constitutional Council recently ruled that the move was unconstitutional prompting pressure on the president to hold elections in accordance with the constitutional purview. Democratic transition is crucial in West Africa that has been characterized by military coups in the recent past, any attempts to subvert the constitutional order in Senegal could embolden unconstitutional takeovers of government in West Africa.

South Africa

Since 1994, South Africa has held general elections every five years, with the ANC winning absolute majority in national elections. However, current trends indicate a decline in the ANC’s popularity.

The country’s economic challenges and internal divisions within the ANC are intricately intertwined with its decline. Analysts have pointed out that given current polling trends, where the ANC is projected to fall below the 50% threshold needed to form a government, the possibility of a coalition government emerges for one of Africa’s largest economies. The upcoming elections will serve as a litmus test for political maturity and the capacity to engage across party lines—essential skills for successful coalition-building in governance. South Africa has for long been a beacon of democracy on the African continent, the May 29^th elections shall be closely watched to determine which leadership it brings and its consequences to the region.

India

India, the world’s most populous democracy, is scheduled to hold its general elections between March and May 2024. It is imperative to state that the term “populous democracy” has come under scrutiny during Modi’s leadership in the last decade. Many predict that the incumbent BJP, which has been in power for the last decade, is on course to win the upcoming elections.

Although BJP has been accused of violating rights of the Muslim minorities and inciting Hindu nationalism in utter disregard for the secular constitution of India, Modi and the party continue to enjoy unfettered popularity. Against this background lies the grim future of human rights and democracy in India. It remains to be seen what more years of BJP will mean to the minorities in India.

Britain

“A day is such a long time at Downing Street.” Or “Anything can happen in British politics,” are some of the common statements that explain the complexities, volatility and uncertainty that often surround politics in Britain. These words could not be truer for the current British Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak and his Conservative Party who are facing growing unpopularity likely to cost them big as the country nears its elections.

The upcoming elections scheduled for the second half of the year are expected to focus on two key issues: immigration and economic decline. The handling of migrants and asylum seekers has received criticism from international organizations, including the United Nations. The Rishi Sunak government is basing its electoral message on finding a solution to the ongoing migration crisis. Although, the government’s plan to deport refugees to Rwanda has been deemed illegal by the court, the government has insisted that it will continue with it.

On the other hand, the Labour Party, as a contender, has not shown resoluteness in making a firm stand for the protection of asylum seekers, refugees, and migrants. This could be a sign that the rights of those seeking refuge could be compromised for political expedience. Politicians should prioritize rights over politics.

United States of America

In what seems to be a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the stakes for the 2024 USA election are even higher. On the one hand the incumbent Joe Biden is being criticized for his poor handling of the conflict in Gaza amidst concerns over his cognitive ability to continue steering the wheel of what is arguably the most tasking job on the planet. On the other, Biden’s opponent, Donald Trump is struggling with numerous charges that include fraud and charges related to overturning the 2020 elections. Trump, a polarizing figure blames Joe for the increase in the influx of people entering the United States through the country’s southern borders and is rallying nationalistic sentiments against migrants. Many experts fear that the reelection of Trump could spell tougher days for climate justice, migrants, and America’s democracy.

After the 2020 general elections, Donald Trump led a mob that launched an attack on Capitol Hill, which is regarded as the seat of American democracy. This unprecedented event drew widespread contempt of American exceptionalism and its claim to good governance. In an effort to combat the abuse of the rule of law and constitutionalism, there have been moves to hold Trump and his co-conspirators accountable for the events of January 6th. However, a second Trump presidency could render all these efforts futile as he has expressed his intention to pardon himself.

The upcoming 2024 US election could significantly impact the future of democracy. If Donald Trump, who is an isolationist, has expressed sympathy towards Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, withdrew the US from the Paris Climate Agreement, and has promoted nationalism against migrants and Muslims, were to become president, it could potentially be catastrophic for geopolitics and the USA’s claim to being a good governance trendsetter.

Owing to the few selected elections above, it is apt to state that 2024 is the election year and democracy’s biggest test.

Alex Martin Musiime